Iowa Wild at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Iowa Wild

2:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

IASPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.92.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 179
Shots: 4028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal28

17Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

3.91Expected goals2.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–5	8–3	3–1	2.1–0.6
2nd	9–13	5–5	1–1	1.0–1.2
3rd	12–10	4–1	0–1	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.91
GSAx: +1.91

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:18Penalty
1st 6:06Penalty
1st 12:50Tanner Dickinson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 16:23Penalty
1st 17:06Penalty
1st 17:58Liam Öhgren (1–1)5v4 · high · 32 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 7:31Matthew Peca (1–2)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 9:09Penalty
2nd 14:06Dylan Peterson (1–3)low · 12 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 15:00Penalty
2nd 15:49Liam Öhgren (2–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 6:24Penalty
3rd 19:11Mackenzie MacEachern (2–4)empty net · low · 27 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj