Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

2:5

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.52.6
High danger: 15
Chances: 39
Shots: 2326

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal26

3Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances5

1.51Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–8	0–4	0–2	0.1–0.9
2nd	10–9	2–4	1–2	0.7–1.1
3rd	10–9	1–1	0–1	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.51
GSAx: -0.49

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.22
GSAx: +0.22

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 7
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -2.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:01Marcel Marcel (0–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 14:56Penalty
1st 17:41Kevin Lombardi (0–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 1:27Gavin Hayes (0–3)low · 21 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 1:32Penalty
2nd 1:53Dominic Toninato (1–3)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 5:21Jalen Luypen (1–4)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 17:26Penalty
3rd 10:13Cole Guttman (1–5)high · 12 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 10:34Brad Lambert (2–5)low · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 16:19Penalty