AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 29

Milwaukee Admirals at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Milwaukee Admirals
1:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

MILHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
10%90%
xG
1.23.4
High danger
17
Chances
414
Shots
2535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal35
4Scoring chances14
1High-danger chances7
1.23Expected goals3.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–101–20–10.3–0.7
2nd7–141–60–30.3–1.4
3rd11–112–61–30.6–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
3.43
GSAx
-0.57
Akira Schmid
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
1.23
GSAx
+0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:52Penalty
  • 1st 1:57Ben Hemmerling (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 1:14Tanner Laczynski (0–2)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 7:03Penalty
  • 2nd 9:46Penalty
  • 2nd 10:36Penalty
  • 2nd 13:17Penalty
  • 2nd 13:17Penalty
  • 2nd 13:17Penalty
  • 2nd 15:40Penalty
  • 2nd 18:16Penalty
  • 3rd 1:51Kyle Marino (1–2)high · snap · rebound · 22 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 3rd 3:56Jonas Røndbjerg (1–3)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 18:50Jakub Demek (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Magnus Chrona