Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

7%93%

xG: 1.54.6
High danger: 07
Chances: 413
Shots: 2342

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal42

4Scoring chances13

0High-danger chances7

1.47Expected goals4.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–18	2–4	0–3	0.7–1.9
2nd	7–10	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.9
3rd	6–14	1–6	0–3	0.4–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.56
GSAx: +1.56

Brett Brochu

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.47
GSAx: -0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:06Penalty
1st 1:06Penalty
1st 1:38Penalty
1st 7:52Sammy Walker (1–0)medium · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Brett Brochu
1st 8:21Penalty
1st 14:02Penalty
2nd 2:54Cam Dineen (1–1)medium · backhand · 15 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 6:43Penalty
2nd 15:04Penalty
2nd 15:26Matthew Savoie (1–2)5v4 · high · snap · 22 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 16:20Andrew Agozzino (2–2)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 10:01Drake Caggiula (2–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 11:59Penalty
3rd 14:09Penalty