AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 30

Utica Comets at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Utica Comets
7:4
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

UTCHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
3.62.9
High danger
84
Chances
1411
Shots
2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29
14Scoring chances11
8High-danger chances4
3.64Expected goals2.93

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–135–43–11.4–1.2
2nd6–95–73–31.2–1.3
3rd9–74–02–01.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER39:01 of the 3rd10:5910:59+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.93
GSAx
-1.07
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
15
Saves
12
Allowed
3
xGA
2.28
GSAx
-0.72
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
9
Saves
5
Allowed
4
xGA
1.36
GSAx
-2.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:10Penalty
  • 1st 3:21Ryan Schmelzer (1–0)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 3:35Mike Hardman (2–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 5:12Penalty
  • 1st 10:04Mike Hardman (3–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 10:29Bogdan Trineyev (3–1)high · 15 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 13:02Henrik Rybinski (3–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 18:49Brian Halonen (4–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 1:44Penalty
  • 2nd 3:25Penalty
  • 2nd 3:25Penalty
  • 2nd 5:21Nathan Légaré (5–2)high · 21 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 6:44Penalty
  • 2nd 8:00Penalty
  • 2nd 8:14Pierrick Dubé (5–3)5v4 · high · 38 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 9:58Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 15:51Matt Strome (5–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 3rd 2:09Penalty
  • 3rd 4:25Samuel Laberge (6–4)low · 35 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 9:01Ryan Schmelzer (7–4)high · 7 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 15:52Penalty
  • 3rd 15:52Penalty