Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

4:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.82.8
High danger: 56
Chances: 1314
Shots: 2822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal22

13Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances6

2.81Expected goals2.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	6–4	1–2	1.1–0.8
2nd	7–7	4–5	2–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	11–9	3–5	2–2	1.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	17:37 of the 3rd	2:23	1:50	+0.050 pts
COL	1	19:48 of the 3rd	0:12	0:12	+0.003 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Ingham

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -1.18

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: -2.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:11Samuel Fagemo (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 1:40Calle Rosén (1–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
1st 4:31Glenn Gawdin (1–2)high · 28 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 16:53Penalty
1st 16:53Penalty
1st 17:45Jacob MacDonald (2–2)low · 30 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
1st 19:08Penalty
2nd 2:55Penalty
2nd 8:31Penalty
2nd 9:55Mark Senden (3–2)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
2nd 12:42Penalty
2nd 18:04Penalty
2nd 19:22Francesco Pinelli (3–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 6:41Penalty
3rd 17:37Jack Ahcan (4–3)low · 12 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
3rd 19:27Glenn Gawdin (4–4)low · 25 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 19:48Andre Lee (4–5)low · 16 ft · beat Adam Scheel