Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers

2:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.62.0
High danger: 56
Chances: 87
Shots: 2920

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal20

8Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances6

2.59Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–6	2–4	2–4	0.9–1.0
2nd	8–8	2–2	1–1	0.6–0.7
3rd	8–6	4–1	2–1	1.1–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: +0.59

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:58Penalty
1st 5:04Ben McCartney (0–1)5v4 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
1st 10:59Penalty
1st 11:23Rory Kerins (1–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 11:47Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 2:54Austin Poganski (1–2)high · 10 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 3:36Penalty
3rd 17:28Cameron Hebig (1–3)empty net · low · 93 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 19:50Rory Kerins (2–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber