Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

4:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

LVBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.71.8
High danger: 62
Chances: 115
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

11Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances2

2.68Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	5–2	4–2	1.2–0.7
2nd	8–7	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	8–10	3–1	1–0	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Miska

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: -1.32

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: +0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:43Anthony Richard (1–0)high · 14 ft · beat Hunter Miska
1st 4:07Penalty
1st 5:27Penalty
1st 15:47Alexis Gendron (2–0)low · 18 ft · beat Hunter Miska
1st 19:27Penalty
1st 19:27Penalty
2nd 3:21Penalty
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 6:32J.R. Avon (3–0)high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Miska
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 10:11Ethan Samson (4–0)low · 40 ft · beat Hunter Miska
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 17:11Penalty
2nd 17:51Calle Odelius (4–1)5v4 · low · 59 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 6:28Penalty
3rd 15:45Penalty