Springfield Thunderbirds at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SPRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 2.61.9
High danger: 42
Chances: 97
Shots: 2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30

9Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances2

2.60Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	3–0	2–0	1.2–0.2
2nd	12–15	6–6	2–2	1.1–1.2
3rd	7–10	0–1	0–0	0.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -2.06

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: +0.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:14Jack Rathbone (0–1)low · 60 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 11:46Penalty
1st 16:14Otto Stenberg (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 19:30Matthew Peca (2–1)low · 24 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 8:59Anton Wahlberg (2–2)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 12:14Penalty
2nd 14:28Penalty
3rd 8:41Isak Rosén (2–3)low · 24 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 13:27Penalty
3rd 19:32Noah Östlund (2–4)empty net · low · 71 ft · beat Colten Ellis