Laval Rocket at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Laval Rocket

3:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

LAVMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 2.42.6
High danger: 63
Chances: 97
Shots: 2823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances3

2.42Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	2–2	1–1	0.9–0.9
2nd	8–10	4–4	2–2	0.8–1.4
3rd	7–5	3–1	3–0	0.7–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	14:59 of the 3rd	5:01	5:01	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: -0.58

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: +1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:31Penalty
1st 8:15Penalty
1st 9:40Penalty
1st 13:06Penalty
1st 15:28Penalty
2nd 1:28Penalty
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 8:03Dylan Coghlan (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 8:14Penalty
2nd 8:14Penalty
2nd 10:51Penalty
2nd 18:05Penalty
2nd 18:05Penalty
3rd 7:47Penalty
3rd 10:06Sean Farrell (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 12:46Jared Davidson (2–1)high · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 14:59William Trudeau (3–1)low · 50 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:35Penalty
3rd 19:35Penalty