Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild

6:2

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.82.2
High danger: 61
Chances: 169
Shots: 3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28

16Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances1

3.78Expected goals2.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	7–3	3–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	17–7	7–2	2–0	2.0–0.5
3rd	5–10	2–4	1–0	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: -1.10

William Rousseau

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.11
GSAx: +0.11

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.13
GSAx: +0.13

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 7
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.88
GSAx: -1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:09Adam Raška (1–0)high · 17 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 6:29Travis Boyd (2–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 14:06Penalty
1st 14:43Liam Öhgren (3–0)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:55Ben Jones (4–0)high · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 6:13Jack Becker (4–1)low · 13 ft · beat William Rousseau
2nd 6:27Penalty
2nd 6:27Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 10:38Penalty
2nd 15:52Hunter Haight (5–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 4:41Penalty
3rd 13:19Emilio Pettersen (5–2)low · 39 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 16:23Travis Boyd (6–2)empty net · low · 141 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg