AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 2

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
4:3
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.02.7
High danger
42
Chances
1110
Shots
3332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal32
11Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances2
3.01Expected goals2.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st20–86–23–11.9–0.7
2nd8–112–31–10.6–1.0
3rd5–133–50–00.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
3.01
GSAx
-0.99
Devin Cooley
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.73
GSAx
-0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:16Travis Barron (0–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 1st 5:55Penalty
  • 1st 6:56Penalty
  • 1st 16:49Sam Morton (1–1)high · 4 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 19:10Sam Morton (2–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 3:40Rory Kerins (3–1)low · 46 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 11:43Penalty
  • 2nd 11:49Rory Kerins (4–1)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 17:20Curtis Douglas (4–2)low · 48 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 17:47Hunter Drew (4–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 18:05Penalty
  • 3rd 0:20Penalty
  • 3rd 8:39Penalty
  • 3rd 14:35Penalty
  • 3rd 19:05Penalty