Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.43.6
High danger: 65
Chances: 1014
Shots: 1938

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal38

10Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances5

2.39Expected goals3.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–18	5–7	1–1	1.0–1.7
2nd	7–12	4–3	4–1	1.1–0.9
3rd	4–8	1–4	1–3	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: +1.65

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: -0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:20Andre Lee (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 0:32Martin Chromiak (2–0)low · 23 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 3:39Penalty
1st 5:03Patrick Giles (2–1)4v5 · medium · 28 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 14:14Penalty
1st 15:34Luca Cagnoni (2–2)5v4 · low · 7 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 18:17Penalty
2nd 8:21Aatu Jämsen (3–2)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 15:44Penalty
2nd 18:24Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 11:05Penalty