Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

3:8

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.43.6
High danger: 410
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal32

10Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances10

2.40Expected goals3.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	5–5	2–5	1.1–1.5
2nd	7–14	3–5	1–3	0.6–1.2
3rd	5–7	2–3	1–2	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: -0.60

Nick Grabko

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -0.14

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 7
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -4.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:56Penalty
1st 6:09Sheldon Dries (0–1)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 13:18Dmitry Kuzmin (1–1)high · backhand · rebound · 5 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 15:22Tim Gettinger (1–2)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 15:52Amadeus Lombardi (1–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 16:20Penalty
1st 16:49Gerry Mayhew (2–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 22 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 17:58Nate Danielson (2–4)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 18:57Dominik Shine (2–5)high · 6 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 19:05Penalty
2nd 1:19Ondrej Becher (2–6)high · wrist · 22 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 3:46Jalen Luypen (3–6)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 1:35Penalty
3rd 3:28Austin Watson (3–7)4v5 · grade A · wrist · 13 ft · beat Nick Grabko
3rd 5:27Penalty
3rd 5:27Penalty
3rd 6:17Nate Danielson (3–8)grade A · wrist · 10 ft · beat Nick Grabko
3rd 12:25Penalty