Toronto Marlies at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Toronto Marlies

1:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

TORSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.51.9
High danger: 24
Chances: 87
Shots: 3120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal20

8Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances4

2.46Expected goals1.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	2–2	0–1	0.7–0.5
2nd	13–7	4–3	1–2	1.0–0.7
3rd	9–8	2–2	1–1	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +1.46

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.45
GSAx: -0.55

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 1
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.40
GSAx: -1.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:31Conor Geekie (0–1)high · 23 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 3:55Anthony Angello (0–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 4:56Penalty
1st 4:56Penalty
1st 11:03Penalty
1st 17:51Penalty
2nd 6:43Penalty
2nd 8:03Conor Geekie (0–3)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 13:58Jack Finley (0–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 14:26Penalty
3rd 7:29Cade Webber (1–4)low · 66 ft · beat Ryan Fanti