Springfield Thunderbirds at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SPRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.52.6
High danger: 23
Chances: 410
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

4Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances3

1.51Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–16	1–3	1–0	0.4–1.0
2nd	4–10	0–7	0–3	0.2–1.3
3rd	13–6	3–0	1–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: -2.42

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.51
GSAx: -0.49

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:27Penalty
1st 14:05Hugh McGing (1–0)low · 10 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 15:09Ryan Schmelzer (1–1)low · 55 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 0:54Austin Strand (1–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 5:46Penalty
2nd 8:15Penalty
3rd 1:54Tanner Dickinson (2–2)medium · 6 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 2:19Nathan Légaré (2–3)low · 44 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 11:05Penalty
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 18:00Xavier Parent (2–4)empty net · low · 48 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 19:25Max Willman (2–5)empty net · low · 51 ft · beat Colten Ellis