AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 4

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
0:5
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
10%90%
xG
1.43.1
High danger
19
Chances
515
Shots
2028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal28
5Scoring chances15
1High-danger chances9
1.37Expected goals3.10

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–94–61–40.7–1.2
2nd6–90–40–30.3–0.9
3rd8–101–50–20.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
3.10
GSAx
-1.90
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
20
Saves
20
Allowed
0
xGA
1.37
GSAx
+1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:27Penalty
  • 1st 4:36Xavier Bourgault (0–1)5v4 · high · snap · 26 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 5:59Penalty
  • 1st 10:34Wyatt Bongiovanni (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 10:57Penalty
  • 1st 17:01Oskar Pettersson (0–3)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 17:22Penalty
  • 2nd 2:38Oskar Pettersson (0–4)high · 16 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 4:30Penalty
  • 2nd 4:30Penalty
  • 2nd 14:53Wyatt Bongiovanni (0–5)medium · 23 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 17:20Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty