AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 4

Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears
2:1
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
1.42.2
High danger
21
Chances
57
Shots
1733

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal33
5Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances1
1.38Expected goals2.24

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–130–30–10.3–0.9
2nd4–111–21–00.3–0.7
3rd7–94–21–00.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
33
Saves
32
Allowed
1
xGA
2.24
GSAx
+1.24
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.38
GSAx
-0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:09Penalty
  • 1st 9:09Penalty
  • 2nd 2:41Luke Philp (1–0)low · 37 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 2:50Penalty
  • 2nd 2:50Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Spencer Smallman (2–0)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 8:53Penalty
  • 3rd 8:53Penalty
  • 3rd 11:59Alexis Gendron (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 18:46Penalty