San Diego Gulls at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

San Diego Gulls

2:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.72.6
High danger: 03
Chances: 312
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

3Scoring chances12

0High-danger chances3

1.71Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.6
2nd	7–14	0–7	0–1	0.5–1.3
3rd	9–9	1–3	0–1	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	10:09	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -0.29

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 5
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.64
GSAx: -2.36

Damian Clara

Shots faced: 1
Saves: 0
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.11
GSAx: -0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:29Graeme Clarke (0–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 6:44Connor MacEachern (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 7:31Graeme Clarke (0–3)high · 26 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 10:40Penalty
1st 17:50Penalty
2nd 9:17Penalty
3rd 1:51Penalty
3rd 4:11Tyson Hinds (1–3)low · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 12:05Judd Caulfield (2–3)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 14:02Luke Toporowski (2–4)medium · 23 ft · beat Damian Clara