Charlotte Checkers at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Charlotte Checkers

5:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

CLTBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 3.12.6
High danger: 62
Chances: 1210
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

12Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances2

3.08Expected goals2.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–13	3–5	1–2	1.1–1.3
2nd	12–10	6–3	3–0	1.3–0.8
3rd	6–10	3–2	2–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: +0.63

Tristan Lennox

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: -1.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:20Penalty
1st 3:25Penalty
1st 10:15Penalty
1st 19:35Penalty
2nd 1:04John Leonard (1–0)4v5 · high · 23 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 2:50Penalty
2nd 5:17Penalty
2nd 5:22Samuel Bolduc (1–1)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 8:46Oliver Okuliar (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 9:46Penalty
2nd 13:37C.J. Smith (3–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 19:49Liam McLinskey (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
3rd 3:07Penalty
3rd 14:58Ben Steeves (5–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
3rd 18:10Brian Pinho (5–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Ken Appleby