Providence Bruins at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Providence Bruins

4:6

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

PROUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.21.9
High danger: 22
Chances: 75
Shots: 2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances2

2.22Expected goals1.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–5	3–1	1–0	0.8–0.3
2nd	4–12	1–2	0–0	0.3–0.8
3rd	12–8	3–2	1–2	1.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	4:27 of the 3rd	15:33	15:33	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nolan Maier

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 19
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -4.05

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:10Joey Abate (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 13:08Penalty
1st 14:56Colton White (1–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Nolan Maier
2nd 5:18Max Willman (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Nolan Maier
2nd 10:17Penalty
2nd 13:33Penalty
2nd 13:33Penalty
2nd 16:11Penalty
2nd 16:18Penalty
2nd 17:25Penalty
3rd 3:22Nathan Légaré (1–3)low · 41 ft · beat Nolan Maier
3rd 4:27Brian Halonen (1–4)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Nolan Maier
3rd 6:18Ryan Schmelzer (1–5)high · 18 ft · beat Nolan Maier
3rd 11:54Joey Abate (2–5)medium · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 14:00Jake Schmaltz (3–5)low · 35 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 18:56Max Willman (3–6)empty net · low · 107 ft · beat Nolan Maier
3rd 19:13Dalton Bancroft (4–6)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Nico Daws