Milwaukee Admirals at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Milwaukee Admirals

2:1

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MILTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 2.53.3
High danger: 46
Chances: 1215
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

12Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances6

2.54Expected goals3.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	3–5	1–2	0.7–1.1
2nd	5–13	3–4	0–1	0.6–1.1
3rd	10–10	6–6	3–3	1.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +2.27

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.54
GSAx: +0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:19Penalty
1st 12:19Penalty
1st 16:01Ryan Ufko (1–0)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 2:53Penalty
2nd 6:43Penalty
2nd 17:00Penalty
3rd 1:16Anthony Romano (1–1)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 3:43Penalty
3rd 5:24Grigori Denisenko (2–1)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg