Coachella Valley Firebirds at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CVHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.82.5
High danger: 53
Chances: 109
Shots: 3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances3

2.80Expected goals2.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	3–3	2–1	0.8–0.9
2nd	12–10	5–3	2–2	1.1–1.0
3rd	15–7	2–3	1–0	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	13:47 of the 3rd	6:13	6:13	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: -1.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:37Penalty
1st 13:10Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 2:27Penalty
2nd 4:30Kai Uchacz (0–1)medium · backhand · 22 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 15:15Dysin Mayo (0–2)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 17:56Ryan Winterton (1–2)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 13:47Tanner Laczynski (1–3)medium · backhand · 18 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 15:04Raphael Lavoie (1–4)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Victor Östman