San Jose Barracuda at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Jose Barracuda

1:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SJCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 2.53.9
High danger: 58
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2534

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal34

10Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances8

2.46Expected goals3.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	3–4	1–3	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–18	6–8	4–4	1.6–2.2
3rd	7–6	1–1	0–1	0.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.88
GSAx: +0.88

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:00Penalty
1st 19:50Oskar Olausson (0–1)low · 26 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 0:23Scott Sabourin (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 4:53Jayson Megna (1–2)low · 38 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 17:49Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 6:59Penalty
3rd 19:14Tye Felhaber (1–3)empty net · high · 8 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov