Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors

2:4

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.03.4
High danger: 56
Chances: 1015
Shots: 2731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances15

5High-danger chances6

3.01Expected goals3.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	3–8	2–3	0.9–1.7
2nd	4–10	1–4	0–0	0.3–0.7
3rd	11–9	6–3	3–3	1.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brett Brochu

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.42
GSAx: -0.58

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Penalty
1st 4:33Penalty
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 16:22Penalty
2nd 1:26Ronnie Attard (1–0)low · 60 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 3:07Penalty
2nd 10:10Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:23James Hamblin (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 2:37Penalty
3rd 3:22Ben McCartney (2–1)4v5 · high · 18 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 5:08Max Szuber (2–2)low · 66 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 12:35Ryan McGregor (2–3)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 18:50Robbie Russo (2–4)empty net · low · 140 ft · beat Brett Brochu