San Diego Gulls at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

San Diego Gulls

1:5

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.82.4
High danger: 46
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances6

2.85Expected goals2.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–5	3–3	0–3	0.6–0.6
2nd	10–12	4–5	2–1	0.9–1.0
3rd	15–10	4–2	2–2	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: +1.85

Damian Clara

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 0
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.45
GSAx: -3.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:30Penalty
1st 14:11Penalty
1st 15:14Penalty
1st 19:17Penalty
1st 19:48Graeme Clarke (0–1)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Damian Clara
2nd 3:50Liam Öhgren (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Damian Clara
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 14:19Penalty
2nd 19:11Carson Lambos (0–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Damian Clara
3rd 6:57Penalty
3rd 6:57Penalty
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 15:34Roland McKeown (1–3)grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 16:01Hunter Haight (1–4)low · 33 ft
3rd 16:39Ben Jones (1–5)empty net · low · 33 ft · beat Damian Clara