Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors

2:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.83.5
High danger: 310
Chances: 1014
Shots: 3635

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal35

10Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances10

2.81Expected goals3.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–10	6–4	1–3	1.2–1.1
2nd	11–11	2–4	1–2	0.8–1.0
3rd	11–14	2–6	1–5	0.8–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: +0.81

Brett Brochu

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.47
GSAx: -1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:19Penalty
1st 3:37Artem Duda (0–1)low · 52 ft · beat Brett Brochu
1st 4:22Penalty
1st 7:59Travis Barron (0–2)low · 25 ft · beat Brett Brochu
1st 9:42Travis Barron (0–3)grade A · 7 ft · beat Brett Brochu
2nd 16:28Ethan Keppen (1–3)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 19:35Cameron Hebig (1–4)high · 8 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 6:25Ben McCartney (1–5)medium · 29 ft · beat Brett Brochu
3rd 19:50Alex Kannok Leipert (2–5)low · 68 ft · beat Dylan Wells