Laval Rocket at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Laval Rocket

3:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

LAVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 3.63.1
High danger: 47
Chances: 149
Shots: 3829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal29

14Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances7

3.56Expected goals3.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–17	0–6	0–4	0.2–1.9
2nd	13–5	8–1	2–1	1.5–0.4
3rd	20–7	6–2	2–2	1.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	3	0:51 of the 3rd	19:09	15:16	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +0.56

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -1.03

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 1
Saves: 1
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.10
GSAx: +0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:32Phillip Di Giuseppe (0–1)high · 7 ft · beat Connor Hughes
1st 8:12Penalty
1st 14:54Penalty
1st 15:43Penalty
1st 17:53Tristen Nielsen (0–2)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Connor Hughes
1st 19:50Penalty
2nd 2:11Penalty
2nd 3:13Penalty
2nd 3:13Penalty
2nd 3:13Penalty
2nd 5:13Filip Mešár (1–2)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 8:32Ty Mueller (1–3)high · 9 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 0:51Ty Mueller (1–4)low · 38 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 2:41Penalty
3rd 6:08Penalty
3rd 8:16Jared Davidson (2–4)low · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 13:57Penalty
3rd 17:59Penalty
3rd 18:36Owen Beck (3–4)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo