Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators

4:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 3.61.9
High danger: 73
Chances: 136
Shots: 3725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal25

13Scoring chances6

7High-danger chances3

3.64Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	5–2	2–2	1.3–0.7
2nd	10–10	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	14–7	5–2	4–0	1.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	19:05 of the 3rd	0:55	0:55	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -0.36

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:56Penalty
1st 3:07Riley Fiddler-Schultz (0–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 6:34Penalty
1st 12:12Penalty
2nd 9:20Penalty
2nd 19:58Brett Murray (0–2)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 1:13Donovan Sebrango (1–2)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 7:12Penalty
3rd 7:46Penalty
3rd 9:08Garrett Pilon (2–2)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 19:05Stephen Halliday (3–2)low · 41 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 19:55Keean Washkurak (4–2)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Devon Levi