AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 11

Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins
6:2
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
4.52.3
High danger
84
Chances
197
Shots
3825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal25
19Scoring chances7
8High-danger chances4
4.45Expected goals2.34

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–69–46–22.4–0.7
2nd13–56–01–01.2–0.1
3rd8–144–31–20.9–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
38
Saves
32
Allowed
6
xGA
4.45
GSAx
-1.55
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.34
GSAx
+0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:49Matthew Poitras (1–0)high · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 8:36Penalty
  • 1st 10:56Penalty
  • 1st 15:43Penalty
  • 2nd 8:53Dans Locmelis (2–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 11:23Tyler Pitlick (3–0)high · 24 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 1:25Oliver Wahlstrom (4–0)low · 54 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 3:18Anton Blidh (4–1)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 3:52Penalty
  • 3rd 3:59Matthew Poitras (5–1)5v4 · grade A · tip · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 9:33Penalty
  • 3rd 11:57Penalty
  • 3rd 14:37Blade Jenkins (5–2)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 16:40Penalty
  • 3rd 19:09John Farinacci (6–2)empty net · medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand