Texas Stars at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Texas Stars

2:5

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

TEXGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.21.8
High danger: 62
Chances: 105
Shots: 3723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal23

10Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances2

3.18Expected goals1.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–7	4–1	2–0	1.3–0.4
2nd	11–9	4–3	2–2	1.0–0.8
3rd	11–7	2–1	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +1.18

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -3.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:39Gabriel Seger (0–1)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 12:28Penalty
1st 19:36Penalty
2nd 2:34Penalty
2nd 2:47Dominik Shine (0–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 5 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 10:16Penalty
2nd 10:43Cameron Hughes (1–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 5 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 12:11Penalty
3rd 1:22Jack Becker (2–2)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 11:20Penalty
3rd 11:20Penalty
3rd 15:37Joe Snively (2–3)low · 44 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 16:59Sheldon Dries (2–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 17:47Nate Danielson (2–5)empty net · low · 22 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg