Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:2

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.84.4
High danger: 29
Chances: 620
Shots: 2137

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances20

2High-danger chances9

1.84Expected goals4.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	5–3	2–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	6–17	1–11	0–3	0.4–2.0
3rd	2–12	0–6	0–5	0.1–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.41
GSAx: +2.41

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:23Anthony Richard (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 6:33Penalty
2nd 6:33Penalty
2nd 6:33Penalty
2nd 8:56Tristan Allard (1–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 9:19Gabriel Fortier (1–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 13:01Penalty
2nd 18:25Penalty
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 4:32Penalty
3rd 7:38Penalty
3rd 7:38Penalty
3rd 7:38Penalty
3rd 7:38Penalty