AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 11

Belleville Senators at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Belleville Senators
4:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BELSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
2.52.3
High danger
43
Chances
117
Shots
2727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal27
11Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances3
2.47Expected goals2.31

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–112–21–10.6–0.8
2nd10–55–21–10.9–0.5
3rd8–114–32–10.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.47
GSAx
-1.53
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.31
GSAx
+0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:47Penalty
  • 1st 6:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:55Penalty
  • 1st 9:55Penalty
  • 1st 10:50Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Donovan Sebrango (1–0)low · 51 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 18:00Matthew Peca (1–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 7:05Tristen Robins (2–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 9:17Calen Addison (2–2)low · 42 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 15:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:42Xavier Bourgault (3–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 17:33Penalty
  • 3rd 4:26Penalty
  • 3rd 8:07Penalty
  • 3rd 8:15Philippe Daoust (4–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 13:59Penalty
  • 3rd 17:26Penalty
  • 3rd 19:36Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Penalty