Laval Rocket at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Laval Rocket

4:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

LAVROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.83.2
High danger: 34
Chances: 711
Shots: 1942

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal42

7Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances4

1.79Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	2–4	0–1	0.5–0.9
2nd	6–23	3–6	2–2	0.7–1.6
3rd	6–8	2–1	1–1	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	16:12 of the 3rd	3:48	3:48	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 40
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: +1.20

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: -2.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:07Penalty
1st 16:24Graham Slaggert (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:42Sean Farrell (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 5:03Penalty
2nd 6:06Laurent Dauphin (2–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:25Konsta Helenius (2–2)high · 14 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
3rd 1:38Noel Hoefenmayer (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:12Jared Davidson (4–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi