Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild

3:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.92.3
High danger: 42
Chances: 116
Shots: 3526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal26

11Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances2

2.89Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–6	5–1	3–1	1.5–0.4
2nd	10–9	2–3	1–0	0.7–0.8
3rd	7–11	4–2	0–1	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -0.11

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:29Penalty
1st 6:04Caedan Bankier (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 9:49Luke Toporowski (2–0)high · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 3:15Caedan Bankier (3–0)low · 24 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 7:16Penalty
2nd 7:16Penalty
3rd 2:08Penalty
3rd 19:47Brad Lambert (3–1)low · 35 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj