AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 11

Tucson Roadrunners at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Tucson Roadrunners
3:6
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TUCRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
59%41%
xG
3.02.2
High danger
22
Chances
138
Shots
3831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal31
13Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances2
3.00Expected goals2.22

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–102–21–10.8–0.8
2nd14–95–31–01.2–0.6
3rd12–126–30–11.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC30:29 of the 3rd19:3119:31+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.00
GSAx
-0.00
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
2.22
GSAx
-3.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:41Austin Poganski (1–0)high · 20 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 5:39Penalty
  • 1st 6:54Aku Räty (1–1)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 16:11Cavan Fitzgerald (1–2)low · 44 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 16:45Joey Anderson (1–3)low · 31 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 9:59Penalty
  • 2nd 13:11Cole Guttman (1–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 14:06Penalty
  • 2nd 15:35Artem Duda (2–4)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 0:29Jackson Cates (2–5)low · 40 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 12:44Andrew Agozzino (3–5)medium · 26 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 15:26Penalty
  • 3rd 19:02Nolan Allan (3–6)empty net · low · 170 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber