Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

1:4

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 3.93.0
High danger: 97
Chances: 1613
Shots: 3229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal29

16Scoring chances13

9High-danger chances7

3.85Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	8–2	6–0	1.9–0.4
2nd	8–9	4–1	0–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	10–13	4–10	3–6	1.1–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: +2.85

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:36Caleb Jones (1–0)medium · 6 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 5:19Penalty
1st 9:29Penalty
1st 14:36Penalty
2nd 1:11Penalty
2nd 3:32Scott Sabourin (1–1)low · 38 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 4:26Penalty
2nd 9:19Penalty
3rd 4:34Penalty
3rd 4:50Pavol Regenda (1–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 10:17Penalty
3rd 10:17Penalty
3rd 11:07Danil Gushchin (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:31Penalty
3rd 16:31Penalty
3rd 16:31Penalty
3rd 17:14Pavol Regenda (1–4)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley