Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild

2:3

Final / OT

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.82.4
High danger: 24
Chances: 811
Shots: 3223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal23

8Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances4

2.77Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	1–3	0–3	0.7–0.7
2nd	7–9	2–5	1–1	0.6–1.0
3rd	11–6	5–3	1–0	1.3–0.5
OT	2–2	0–0	0–0	0.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:41	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +0.77

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: -0.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:35Penalty
1st 4:31C.J. Suess (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 8:02Liam Malmquist (0–2)high · 22 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 14:42Penalty
2nd 8:56Penalty
2nd 12:38Penalty
2nd 13:45Penalty
2nd 14:49Penalty
2nd 16:49Penalty
2nd 18:23Penalty
2nd 18:23Penalty
3rd 5:46Penalty
3rd 10:01Liam Öhgren (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 18:37Luke Toporowski (2–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
OT 2:02Mason Shaw (2–3)low · 15 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt