Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

1:5

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.62.0
High danger: 34
Chances: 78
Shots: 3424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances4

2.58Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	3–2	1–1	0.9–0.6
2nd	12–9	1–2	0–0	0.7–0.7
3rd	9–7	3–4	2–3	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	4:00 of the 3rd	16:00	10:34	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: +1.58

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -2.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:03Penalty
1st 15:24Penalty
1st 17:38Ben Gleason (0–1)low · 50 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 17:50Penalty
1st 17:50Penalty
1st 17:50Penalty
2nd 3:41Rodrigo Abols (0–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 4:43Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
3rd 4:00Ethan Samson (0–3)low · 60 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 6:43Matt Strome (1–3)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 13:04Hunter McDonald (1–4)high · rebound · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 14:43Helge Grans (1–5)medium · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 18:29Penalty
3rd 18:29Penalty