Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

4:0

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.93.1
High danger: 52
Chances: 1212
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

12Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances2

2.87Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	3–3	3–0	0.9–0.8
2nd	12–12	6–6	0–2	1.2–1.4
3rd	8–11	3–3	2–0	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carter George

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +3.06

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -1.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:50Martin Chromiak (1–0)low · 53 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 2:47Reilly Walsh (2–0)low · rebound · 59 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 9:08Penalty
1st 9:08Penalty
1st 9:33Penalty
1st 9:33Penalty
1st 19:26Penalty
1st 19:26Penalty
1st 19:26Penalty
2nd 2:36Penalty
2nd 14:35Penalty
2nd 15:44Penalty
2nd 16:29Penalty
2nd 17:05Reilly Walsh (3–0)medium · 38 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 19:18Penalty
2nd 19:18Penalty
3rd 2:34Penalty
3rd 10:01Penalty
3rd 11:25Taylor Ward (4–0)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov