Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors

2:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 57
Chances: 912
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances7

2.10Expected goals2.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–13	1–4	1–3	0.3–1.0
2nd	9–13	2–6	0–4	0.6–1.4
3rd	11–3	6–2	4–0	1.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	17:01	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +0.10

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 16
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.65
GSAx: +1.65

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.98
GSAx: -3.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:06Ronnie Attard (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 7:13Jani Nyman (1–1)low · 56 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 7:41Jani Nyman (1–2)high · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 12:27Cale Fleury (1–3)low · 56 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 14:38Jagger Firkus (1–4)high · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 16:15Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 9:10Jacob Perreault (2–4)high · 14 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 13:22Penalty