Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers

3:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.02.0
High danger: 42
Chances: 93
Shots: 2924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances3

4High-danger chances2

3.01Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	4–0	1–0	1.2–0.6
2nd	9–4	3–1	2–1	0.9–0.6
3rd	8–11	2–2	1–1	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	13:43 of the 3rd	6:17	6:17	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +0.01

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:56Penalty
1st 3:56Penalty
1st 6:07Penalty
1st 13:26Penalty
1st 16:17Penalty
2nd 9:45Penalty
2nd 12:59Brett Davis (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 16:33Chase Wouters (1–1)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 17:33Penalty
2nd 19:28Hunter Brzustewicz (2–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 7:05Penalty
3rd 13:43Brett Davis (3–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 15:53Penalty