AHLDashboard
Sunday, April 13

Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars
3:1
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
72%28%
xG
2.51.4
High danger
21
Chances
56
Shots
3217

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal17
5Scoring chances6
2High-danger chances1
2.49Expected goals1.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st81115110.81.0
2nd14320000.90.2
3rd10321100.70.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI117:05 of the 3rd2:552:55+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
2.49
GSAx
+0.49
Shots faced
17
Saves
16
Allowed
1
xGA
1.44
GSAx
+0.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:04Justin Robidas (0–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 12:55Justin Ertel (1–1)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 14:36Penalty
  • 1st 16:22Penalty
  • 2nd 6:01Penalty
  • 3rd 2:01Penalty
  • 3rd 17:05Kole Lind (2–1)low · 20 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 18:48Luke Krys (3–1)empty net · low · 122 ft