San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls

4:3

Final / OT

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.72.9
High danger: 57
Chances: 1210
Shots: 3430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal30

12Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances7

3.67Expected goals2.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	1–6	0–4	0.6–1.3
2nd	10–7	3–1	2–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	13–13	7–3	2–2	1.6–1.1
OT	1–0	1–0	1–0	0.5–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:56	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.67
GSAx: -0.33

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -0.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:34Ben Meyers (0–1)grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 8:11Penalty
1st 16:21Jagger Firkus (0–2)high · 25 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 1:55Penalty
2nd 11:47Penalty
2nd 14:51Penalty
2nd 17:02Jan Myšák (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 19:04Yegor Sidorov (2–2)low · 17 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 4:45Penalty
3rd 9:19Penalty
3rd 12:39Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–3)low · 25 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 19:46Penalty
3rd 19:52Roland McKeown (3–3)5v4 · high · 43 ft · beat Victor Östman
OT 2:52Nico Myatovic (4–3)grade A · 33 ft · beat Victor Östman