Providence Bruins at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Providence Bruins

3:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

PROWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 4.62.7
High danger: 64
Chances: 158
Shots: 4631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

46Shots on goal31

15Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances4

4.56Expected goals2.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–15	4–3	2–3	1.3–1.3
2nd	16–10	4–4	2–1	1.5–1.0
3rd	20–6	7–1	2–0	1.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	19:33 of the 3rd	0:27	0:27	+0.008 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 46
Saves: 43
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.56
GSAx: +1.56

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:17Penalty
1st 10:32Atley Calvert (0–1)high · backhand · 18 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 13:32Penalty
2nd 14:06Dans Locmelis (1–1)medium · tip · 13 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 16:52Penalty
3rd 7:50Emil Bemström (1–2)medium · backhand · 10 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 10:06Penalty
3rd 10:59Patrick Brown (2–2)5v4 · high · tip · 10 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 14:13Penalty
3rd 19:33Riley Tufte (3–2)medium · wrist · rebound · 17 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist