Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

2:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.12.9
High danger: 35
Chances: 713
Shots: 2621

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal21

7Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances5

2.05Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–8	3–4	1–0	0.5–1.0
2nd	15–5	3–3	2–2	1.1–0.7
3rd	6–8	1–6	0–3	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: +0.05

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: -1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:00Martin Chromiak (0–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 6:58Samuel Fagemo (0–2)low · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 14:49Samuel Fagemo (0–3)low · 28 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 17:12Penalty
2nd 9:02Kaleb Lawrence (0–4)high · 21 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 15:51Penalty
3rd 5:18Penalty
3rd 5:18Penalty
3rd 8:09Jacob MacDonald (1–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 10:40Penalty
3rd 13:03Jacob MacDonald (2–4)low · 57 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 13:33Penalty
3rd 18:41Penalty
3rd 18:41Penalty