Henderson Silver Knights at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

4:0

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

HSKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 2.42.1
High danger: 43
Chances: 87
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances3

2.37Expected goals2.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–8	5–1	1–0	1.3–0.5
2nd	9–10	2–3	2–2	0.8–0.8
3rd	4–11	1–3	1–1	0.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 29
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +2.09

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -1.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:06Jakub Demek (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 5:12Kai Uchacz (2–0)grade A · 12 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 16:11Penalty
2nd 18:11Raphael Lavoie (3–0)low · 47 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 1:46Penalty
3rd 7:57Penalty
3rd 9:30Penalty
3rd 12:37Raphael Lavoie (4–0)high · 11 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 19:30Penalty