Bridgeport Islanders at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BRIHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.73.7
High danger: 19
Chances: 615
Shots: 2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances15

1High-danger chances9

1.74Expected goals3.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	3–4	1–3	0.6–1.2
2nd	9–11	2–5	0–2	0.6–1.4
3rd	8–7	1–6	0–4	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	1:00 of the 3rd	19:00	19:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tristan Lennox

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: -0.28

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: +0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:05Alex Jefferies (1–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 6:37Penalty
2nd 1:57Penalty
2nd 10:11Brandon Scanlin (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 12:21Dylan Roobroeck (1–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 19:32Noah Laba (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
3rd 1:00Jaroslav Chmelar (1–4)high · 17 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
3rd 5:55Penalty
3rd 11:48Penalty
3rd 13:25Penalty