Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 33
Chances: 911
Shots: 2137

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances3

2.16Expected goals2.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–12	1–5	0–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	13–10	6–2	2–0	1.4–0.7
3rd	5–15	2–4	1–1	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	12:23 of the 3rd	7:37	6:42	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -1.13

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:41Ivan Miroshnichenko (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 10:45Penalty
1st 16:08Zach Gallant (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 17:40Penalty
2nd 5:17Hendrix Lapierre (1–2)low · 21 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 14:18Penalty
2nd 16:41Penalty
3rd 1:49Penalty
3rd 6:06Penalty
3rd 12:23Bogdan Trineyev (1–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 16:01Jack Beck (2–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 18:59Matt Strome (2–4)empty net · low · 96 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist