Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

4:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.21.7
High danger: 41
Chances: 127
Shots: 3321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal21

12Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances1

3.19Expected goals1.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	2–3	0–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	11–5	6–1	3–0	1.4–0.3
3rd	11–9	4–3	1–1	1.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: -0.81

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:23Kyle Criscuolo (1–0)low · 21 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 8:38Penalty
1st 8:38Penalty
1st 12:15Penalty
2nd 1:46Penalty
2nd 5:49Oliver Okuliar (2–0)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 13:13Penalty
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 16:43Dalibor Dvorský (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 1:35Zach Dean (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 6:51Sandis Vilmanis (3–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 17:21Penalty
3rd 17:25Penalty
3rd 19:29Rasmus Asplund (4–2)empty net · low · 32 ft · beat Colten Ellis